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Este trabajo ilustra no sólo una innovadora forma de estudiar el efecto látigo, o una forma distinta de modelar las cadenas de suministro usando los principios. Se debe a un desajuste en la cadena de suministro entre las Relación entre precio-demanda pueden incrementar o mitigar el efecto látigo. Efecto Latigo Solución CPFR Planeación agregada. Es la sincronización de la estrategia de la cadena de suministro y de competitiva. Causas.

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In general, these managers use the stock positions, forecast and safety stock target for their decision making. System Dynamics Review17, 2, pp. Equations of shministro Infinite Order Material Delay if we assume there are ten steps in a delay time, the equations become: Therefore, the model is limited in detail but not in meaning since our analysis of distortions is of an aggregated nature.

Rectangles represent stock positions of raw materials, WIP and finished goods.

Efecto Latigo by Daniel E Diaz R on Prezi

We have also orders to be confirmed on a monthly basis. In suminixtro context of the supply chain dynamics problem, Forresterand Sterman, have explored the impact of time delays.

Also the model may be used to study the particularities of different industries and establish comparisons across industries, to study the influences of different forecast methods as well as consensus meetings, etc.

The dotted line represents the forecast value and in green we have the ‘real’ demand. Therefore, at the end zuministro the week the RDC restores it’s the planned stock levels. Better coordination of the supply chain by managers can be promoted once managers are conscious of the global effects of their heuristic policies in the system.

Variables are represented with circles, and constants with diamonds. Purchase managers are also responsible for the supply of aluminium cans and plastic or glass bottles. In our case the study behaviour is the Bullwhip Effect, and the causes of the behaviour are defined by the policies of the supply chain managers, that make decisions based on a given flow of information.


If we use sales instead efecot demand in forecasting we can constrain the market to sell only what we think that we efscto sell, instead of what the customer wants. Rate variables are de fined: In table 3 we can see the stock movement in the RDCs. This paper illustrate not only an innovative form to study the Bullwhip Effect nor only a different way to model supply chains using System Dynamics, but also it establishes a relationship between information structures, decisions rules, and demand distortion in supply chains.

In figure 9in relation to production orders, we can see a perfect execution of production orders with the exception of week With models like the one presented here it is possible ne studied and compare different companies and different sectors by using experimental input signals, and latibo chain performance measures taken from either operations management ort from control theory.

The safety stock policies, or safety stock target, are constant values. The efectl can also be used to analyze the congruency of latgio makers with respect the information systems.

This is a case study about the modelling of a supply chain decision structure of a Mexican bottling company. Sloan Management ReviewSpring, pp. The number of elements of InTransit should be set equal to the number of time steps in a DelayTime period, i. Therefore, we will consider only the behaviour of the system after the 10 th week. A pipeline delay may be looked upon as a “moving sidewalk” or conveyor belt, where items are put on the conveyor at one end, and expelled at the other end after a fixed time.

PCNA grew faster than its largest competitor. Management Science35, 3, pp.

Every event with less that 1 week duration is considered as a simultaneous one for the purposes of the simulation. It is clear that during week 45, no special demand increment was experienced.

We see the increased distortion of oscillation manifest the Bullwhip Effect, as described suministrl Forrester However, during the first week the distribution manager orders finished goods from the DC upstream to return to efdcto planned stock levels and cover expected future product demand. System Dynamics Review14, 1, pp. We have to take into account maintenance, and order in advance when needed.


From the graph we can see that demand oscillations are less than distribution, production and purchase oscillations respectively. I believe that production used to do a good job, same as sales Suppose that we implement a purchase policy for four seasons, that is, for each season we will define a constant volume of weekly purchases. As a consequence a SD model will be good in explaining but limited in predicting.

Tatiana Lara

Consider also that the suppliers can receive orders that vary from 80, to zero units from one month to the suminisgro. As with any other beverages companies, EMSA is mainly interested in perfect order policies. Therefore, the assumption of demand to test the model is meaningful to provide an interpretation. The launch of Mountain Dew contributed significantly to growth in Russia. A Supply Chain Diagnostic Fe For the proposed scenario, we can see how the purchase manager has stopped seeing the forecast as his heuristic policy.

Supply Chain Dynamics, a Case Study on the Structural Causes of the Bullwhip Effect

We finally agree that forecasting was going to be again a responsibility of production, but under the assessment of the sales department In effect, oscillations are particularly evident in purchase orders, and they are influenced by previous orders downstream in the supply chain. The model shows the main aggregated behaviour of inventories, differences between plan and execution and the resulting service level.

Every year they select a small set of suppliers from a pool of possible vendors. International Journal of Production Economics78, pp. Demand is clearly seasonal during the year, with peaks during the summer between weeks 15 and The initial inventory is 20, units.

This has generated in the sales managers the culture of over ordering when rationing expectations appear.